2026
1.
Luke Strohbehn; Cindy Grimm
Branch pruning alignment using small form factor monocular time-of-flight sensors Journal Article
In: Robotics and Autonomous Systems, vol. 203, pp. 105513, 2026, ISSN: 0921-8890.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Agriculture, Dataset, Pruning, Robotics, Time-of-flight
@article{strohbehn_branch_2026,
title = {Branch pruning alignment using small form factor monocular time-of-flight sensors},
author = {Luke Strohbehn and Cindy Grimm},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921889026001867},
doi = {10.1016/j.robot.2026.105513},
issn = {0921-8890},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-01},
urldate = {2026-09-01},
journal = {Robotics and Autonomous Systems},
volume = {203},
pages = {105513},
abstract = {Fruiting trees need annual pruning to maximize yields, and robotic pruning is gaining traction as labor shortages and costs hinder production and scalability. Pruning properly includes accurate cuts, requiring precise alignment and confirmation that a branch has entered the jaws of the pruner. Vision-based open and closed loop controllers can help robotic arms navigate towards target branches, but both methods are unable to receive feedback to confirm alignment with a branch due to the pruning hardware itself blocking the field of view of the camera. We present a physical prototype with two single-beam time-of-flight sensors horizontally aligned with the cut point of the pruner jaws and a set of high-level controllers to localize, align, and approach the branch. We demonstrate that our system localizes and aligns to the branch with high consistency, failing only in one edge case and under adverse lighting conditions. Our method is usable with any 6 dof+ robotic arm. Finally, we provide a dataset that includes all field and laboratory trials.},
keywords = {Agriculture, Dataset, Pruning, Robotics, Time-of-flight},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Fruiting trees need annual pruning to maximize yields, and robotic pruning is gaining traction as labor shortages and costs hinder production and scalability. Pruning properly includes accurate cuts, requiring precise alignment and confirmation that a branch has entered the jaws of the pruner. Vision-based open and closed loop controllers can help robotic arms navigate towards target branches, but both methods are unable to receive feedback to confirm alignment with a branch due to the pruning hardware itself blocking the field of view of the camera. We present a physical prototype with two single-beam time-of-flight sensors horizontally aligned with the cut point of the pruner jaws and a set of high-level controllers to localize, align, and approach the branch. We demonstrate that our system localizes and aligns to the branch with high consistency, failing only in one edge case and under adverse lighting conditions. Our method is usable with any 6 dof+ robotic arm. Finally, we provide a dataset that includes all field and laboratory trials.
2.
Dmitri A. Kalashnikov; John T. Abatzoglou; Daniel L. Swain
Climatology and trends of annual maximum subdaily precipitation in the Western United States Journal Article
In: Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 53, pp. 100915, 2026, ISSN: 2212-0947.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{kalashnikov_climatology_2026,
title = {Climatology and trends of annual maximum subdaily precipitation in the Western United States},
author = {Dmitri A. Kalashnikov and John T. Abatzoglou and Daniel L. Swain},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094726000666},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2026.100915},
issn = {2212-0947},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-01},
urldate = {2026-09-01},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
volume = {53},
pages = {100915},
abstract = {Short-duration precipitation extremes can threaten public safety and infrastructure by generating flash flooding and geophysical mass wasting events including mudslides and debris flows. Using two surface gauge-based precipitation datasets (1980-2024), we characterize the climatology of annual maximum subdaily precipitation and quantify trends across the western United States (WUS) \textendash a topographically complex region with widely varying precipitation regimes prone to flash flooding. We find that 60.7% of WUS stations, including the vast majority of those located in the continental interior, typically experience 1-hr annual maximum precipitation (AMP) during summer and during the afternoon and evening hours (12:00-23:00 local time). Although most stations do not show statistically significant trends in 1-hr AMP intensity over the full period of record (1980-2024), a significant 10.3% domain-median increase in 1-hr AMP intensity was observed during 2000-2024. These changes largely result from seasonal maximum precipitation (SMP) increases during summer over the continental interior coinciding with a trend toward more favorable summer thermodynamic environments for short-duration precipitation extremes. We also report widespread though statistically insignificant increases in SMP intensity during winter and spring in California since 2000 coinciding with increased column water vapor. These results are suggestive of potential recent intensification of subdaily precipitation extremes in a warming climate in the WUS despite a backdrop of considerable internal variability.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Short-duration precipitation extremes can threaten public safety and infrastructure by generating flash flooding and geophysical mass wasting events including mudslides and debris flows. Using two surface gauge-based precipitation datasets (1980-2024), we characterize the climatology of annual maximum subdaily precipitation and quantify trends across the western United States (WUS) – a topographically complex region with widely varying precipitation regimes prone to flash flooding. We find that 60.7% of WUS stations, including the vast majority of those located in the continental interior, typically experience 1-hr annual maximum precipitation (AMP) during summer and during the afternoon and evening hours (12:00-23:00 local time). Although most stations do not show statistically significant trends in 1-hr AMP intensity over the full period of record (1980-2024), a significant 10.3% domain-median increase in 1-hr AMP intensity was observed during 2000-2024. These changes largely result from seasonal maximum precipitation (SMP) increases during summer over the continental interior coinciding with a trend toward more favorable summer thermodynamic environments for short-duration precipitation extremes. We also report widespread though statistically insignificant increases in SMP intensity during winter and spring in California since 2000 coinciding with increased column water vapor. These results are suggestive of potential recent intensification of subdaily precipitation extremes in a warming climate in the WUS despite a backdrop of considerable internal variability.
3.
Miranda Cravetz; Alejandro Velasquez; Jared Northrop; Cindy Grimm; Joseph R. Davidson
Design and evaluation of two heuristic-based interactive controllers for selective apple harvest Journal Article
In: Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, vol. 250, pp. 111834, 2026, ISSN: 0168-1699.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{cravetz_design_2026,
title = {Design and evaluation of two heuristic-based interactive controllers for selective apple harvest},
author = {Miranda Cravetz and Alejandro Velasquez and Jared Northrop and Cindy Grimm and Joseph R. Davidson},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168169926004291},
doi = {10.1016/j.compag.2026.111834},
issn = {0168-1699},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-08-01},
urldate = {2026-08-01},
journal = {Computers and Electronics in Agriculture},
volume = {250},
pages = {111834},
abstract = {The picking action used by an apple harvesting robot has a critical impact on post-harvest fruit quality and long-term tree health. A poorly executed pick can lead to excessive fruit bruising, stem pulls, and limb breaks. The prior work has typically considered the picking phase an open loop motion control problem, using patterns such as linear pull, inclined pull, pull-twist, etc. In this paper, we consider picking an interaction control problem whereby force feedback is used to guide robot motion. We designed two picking controllers that utilize different strategies to detach the apple. The first controller keeps a constant tension in the stem while moving perpendicularly to the measured force in order to replicate a pendulum-like motion. The second uses a simplex search to seek out the stiffest direction, attempting to minimize plant damage by minimizing plant deflection. To evaluate performance, we conducted picking trials on a modular orchard testbed and performed a logistic regression to evaluate the effect of controller and plant properties on the rate of spur break events. We found that plant and fruit growth angles strongly influenced the observed rate of spur breaks. Compared to a benchmark controller, the stiffness seeking controller reduced the rate of spur breaks from an overall rate of 44.7% to 12.1%. The stiffness seeking controller also had the fastest separation rate with an average picking time of 1.00 s, compared to 2.34 s for the constant tension controller. During outdoor field experiments, preliminary results showed that controller performance in a commercial apple orchard was similar to what was observed in the lab on a physical proxy.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The picking action used by an apple harvesting robot has a critical impact on post-harvest fruit quality and long-term tree health. A poorly executed pick can lead to excessive fruit bruising, stem pulls, and limb breaks. The prior work has typically considered the picking phase an open loop motion control problem, using patterns such as linear pull, inclined pull, pull-twist, etc. In this paper, we consider picking an interaction control problem whereby force feedback is used to guide robot motion. We designed two picking controllers that utilize different strategies to detach the apple. The first controller keeps a constant tension in the stem while moving perpendicularly to the measured force in order to replicate a pendulum-like motion. The second uses a simplex search to seek out the stiffest direction, attempting to minimize plant damage by minimizing plant deflection. To evaluate performance, we conducted picking trials on a modular orchard testbed and performed a logistic regression to evaluate the effect of controller and plant properties on the rate of spur break events. We found that plant and fruit growth angles strongly influenced the observed rate of spur breaks. Compared to a benchmark controller, the stiffness seeking controller reduced the rate of spur breaks from an overall rate of 44.7% to 12.1%. The stiffness seeking controller also had the fastest separation rate with an average picking time of 1.00 s, compared to 2.34 s for the constant tension controller. During outdoor field experiments, preliminary results showed that controller performance in a commercial apple orchard was similar to what was observed in the lab on a physical proxy.
4.
Savalkar, S., Yourek, M., Brady, M., & Rajagopalan, K.
Climate change impacts on snowmelt contributions to streamflow and implications for ecosystem services Honorable Mention Proceedings Article
In: 2026.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@inproceedings{noauthor_asabe_nodate,
title = {Climate change impacts on snowmelt contributions to streamflow and implications for ecosystem services},
author = {Savalkar, S., Yourek, M., Brady, M., \& Rajagopalan, K.},
url = {https://asabe.org/boyd-scott},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-13},
urldate = {2026-07-13},
abstract = {Boyd-Scott Graduate Research Award, 2nd Place},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inproceedings}
}
Boyd-Scott Graduate Research Award, 2nd Place
5.
Yassine Chemingui; Chenhua Fan; Honghao Wei; Janardhan Rao Doppa
SteinGate: Tail-Sensitive Safe Reinforcement Learning via Stein Discrepancy Miscellaneous
2026, (arXiv:2607.13175 [cs.LG]).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Machine Learning
@misc{chemingui_steingate_2026,
title = {SteinGate: Tail-Sensitive Safe Reinforcement Learning via Stein Discrepancy},
author = {Yassine Chemingui and Chenhua Fan and Honghao Wei and Janardhan Rao Doppa},
url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2607.13175},
doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2607.13175},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-01},
urldate = {2026-07-01},
publisher = {arXiv},
abstract = {Safe reinforcement learning typically enforces safety by bounding expected cumulative costs, a criterion that often fails to detect rare but catastrophic tail events. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces SteinGate, a boundary-aware distributional safety certificate that replaces fragile tail fitting with a robust consistency check using Kernelized Stein Discrepancy while accounting for boundary atoms induced by clipped costs. SteinGate evaluates whether observed policy rollout costs remain consistent with a safe reference distribution, providing a non-parametric safety certificate. This certificate is used to dynamically adapt the learning regime: favoring reward-improving policy updates when rollouts remain consistent with the safe reference and switching to recovery behavior when the cost tail deviates. Experiments on continuous-control benchmarks demonstrate that SteinGate significantly reduces both the frequency and severity of constraint violations during training while maintaining competitive returns relative to state-of-the-art baselines.},
note = {arXiv:2607.13175 [cs.LG]},
keywords = {Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Machine Learning},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
Safe reinforcement learning typically enforces safety by bounding expected cumulative costs, a criterion that often fails to detect rare but catastrophic tail events. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces SteinGate, a boundary-aware distributional safety certificate that replaces fragile tail fitting with a robust consistency check using Kernelized Stein Discrepancy while accounting for boundary atoms induced by clipped costs. SteinGate evaluates whether observed policy rollout costs remain consistent with a safe reference distribution, providing a non-parametric safety certificate. This certificate is used to dynamically adapt the learning regime: favoring reward-improving policy updates when rollouts remain consistent with the safe reference and switching to recovery behavior when the cost tail deviates. Experiments on continuous-control benchmarks demonstrate that SteinGate significantly reduces both the frequency and severity of constraint violations during training while maintaining competitive returns relative to state-of-the-art baselines.
6.
Abid Sarwar; Josué Medellín-Azuara; John T. Abatzoglou; Joshua H. Viers
In: PLOS Water, vol. 5, no. 7, pp. e0000416, 2026, ISSN: 2767-3219.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Agricultural irrigation, Crop management, Crops, Remote Sensing, Seasons, Valleys, Vegetables, Water management
@article{sarwar_identifying_2026,
title = {Identifying agricultural consumptive-use patterns to support adaptive water management in California’s Santa Clara Valley via remote sensing and machine learning},
author = {Abid Sarwar and Josu\'{e} Medell\'{i}n-Azuara and John T. Abatzoglou and Joshua H. Viers},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/water/article?id=10.1371/journal.pwat.0000416},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pwat.0000416},
issn = {2767-3219},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-01},
urldate = {2026-07-01},
journal = {PLOS Water},
volume = {5},
number = {7},
pages = {e0000416},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
abstract = {Site-specific agricultural water management is particularly important in highly productive and diverse agricultural regions such as California’s Santa Clara Valley (SCV), where broad crop categories can obscure substantial parcel-scale differences in consumptive use. This study used unsupervised machine learning on remotely sensed data from 2019-2023 to develop operationally distinct, agricultural consumptive-use groups for major crop types. Time series of Sentinel-2 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), OpenET ensemble actual evapotranspiration (ETa, used as a proxy for consumptive use), and PRISM precipitation were analyzed at the parcel level for truck crops, vineyards, and hay crops. Across 2,189 parcels (textasciitilde7,483 ha), the only-NDVI and NDVI+ETa clustering approaches identified 13 consumptive-use clusters and revealed substantial within-crop heterogeneity hidden by conventional crop averages. Six clusters were detected in truck crops (TC), four in vineyards (VC), and three in hay crops (HC). Adding ETa magnitude and trend information generally reduced average within-cluster coefficient of variation (CV) relative to only-NDVI clustering and increased separation among cluster means. The ratios of between-cluster to mean within-cluster CV were lower under only-NDVI (TC = 0.30},
keywords = {Agricultural irrigation, Crop management, Crops, Remote Sensing, Seasons, Valleys, Vegetables, Water management},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Site-specific agricultural water management is particularly important in highly productive and diverse agricultural regions such as California’s Santa Clara Valley (SCV), where broad crop categories can obscure substantial parcel-scale differences in consumptive use. This study used unsupervised machine learning on remotely sensed data from 2019-2023 to develop operationally distinct, agricultural consumptive-use groups for major crop types. Time series of Sentinel-2 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), OpenET ensemble actual evapotranspiration (ETa, used as a proxy for consumptive use), and PRISM precipitation were analyzed at the parcel level for truck crops, vineyards, and hay crops. Across 2,189 parcels (textasciitilde7,483 ha), the only-NDVI and NDVI+ETa clustering approaches identified 13 consumptive-use clusters and revealed substantial within-crop heterogeneity hidden by conventional crop averages. Six clusters were detected in truck crops (TC), four in vineyards (VC), and three in hay crops (HC). Adding ETa magnitude and trend information generally reduced average within-cluster coefficient of variation (CV) relative to only-NDVI clustering and increased separation among cluster means. The ratios of between-cluster to mean within-cluster CV were lower under only-NDVI (TC = 0.30
7.
Matt Yourek; Daniel Haller; Nicholas A. Potter; Kirti Rajagopalan; Kairon Shayne D. Garcia; Jonathan Yoder
Water right forfeiture in Washington state from 1967 to 2019 Journal Article
In: Water Policy, vol. 28, no. 7, pp. 1132–1156, 2026, ISSN: 1366-7017.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{yourek_water_2026,
title = {Water right forfeiture in Washington state from 1967 to 2019},
author = {Matt Yourek and Daniel Haller and Nicholas A. Potter and Kirti Rajagopalan and Kairon Shayne D. Garcia and Jonathan Yoder},
url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2026.096},
doi = {10.2166/wp.2026.096},
issn = {1366-7017},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-06-01},
urldate = {2026-06-01},
journal = {Water Policy},
volume = {28},
number = {7},
pages = {1132\textendash1156},
abstract = {Diagram summarizing the methodology and key findings of the paper.Under the prior appropriation doctrine of the Western United States, persistent nonuse of a water right may lead to its forfeiture. Although water right forfeiture is statutorily defined, its incidence remains poorly understood. This paper analyzes water right forfeiture in Washington State from 1967 to 2019 to address this knowledge gap. The data primarily come from water right change requests, but we also examine court decisions in general adjudications and orders issued by the regulatory agency. We show that forfeiture following review of a water right change request was relatively uncommon before the 2000s but became substantially more frequent thereafter. We further show that forfeiture rates vary geographically, with some subbasins experiencing much higher rates than others. Additionally, forfeiture incidence varies across water right type, purpose of use, and type of owner, among other dimensions. Compared with change authorizations, forfeiture resulting from State-issued orders has occurred less often, especially in recent years. Finally, we found that adjudication accounts for the majority of the state\'s forfeiture by volume of water. This analysis provides valuable information for evaluating forfeiture policy and managing water rights.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Diagram summarizing the methodology and key findings of the paper.Under the prior appropriation doctrine of the Western United States, persistent nonuse of a water right may lead to its forfeiture. Although water right forfeiture is statutorily defined, its incidence remains poorly understood. This paper analyzes water right forfeiture in Washington State from 1967 to 2019 to address this knowledge gap. The data primarily come from water right change requests, but we also examine court decisions in general adjudications and orders issued by the regulatory agency. We show that forfeiture following review of a water right change request was relatively uncommon before the 2000s but became substantially more frequent thereafter. We further show that forfeiture rates vary geographically, with some subbasins experiencing much higher rates than others. Additionally, forfeiture incidence varies across water right type, purpose of use, and type of owner, among other dimensions. Compared with change authorizations, forfeiture resulting from State-issued orders has occurred less often, especially in recent years. Finally, we found that adjudication accounts for the majority of the state's forfeiture by volume of water. This analysis provides valuable information for evaluating forfeiture policy and managing water rights.
8.
Abhijin Adiga; Ayush Chopra; Mandy L. Wilson; S. S. Ravi; Dawen Xie; Samarth Swarup; Bryan L. Lewis; Andrew Scott Warren; John Barnes; Ramesh Raskar; Madhav V. Marathe
A high-resolution, US-scale digital similar of interacting livestock, wild birds, and human ecosystems for multihost epidemic spread Journal Article
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 123, no. 22, pp. e2507074123, 2026.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{adiga_high-resolution_2026,
title = {A high-resolution, US-scale digital similar of interacting livestock, wild birds, and human ecosystems for multihost epidemic spread},
author = {Abhijin Adiga and Ayush Chopra and Mandy L. Wilson and S. S. Ravi and Dawen Xie and Samarth Swarup and Bryan L. Lewis and Andrew Scott Warren and John Barnes and Ramesh Raskar and Madhav V. Marathe},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2507074123},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2507074123},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-06-01},
urldate = {2026-06-01},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {123},
number = {22},
pages = {e2507074123},
publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
abstract = {One Health issues, such as the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, present unique challenges at the human\textendashanimal\textendashenvironmental interface. Ongoing H5N1 outbreaks underscore the urgent need for comprehensive modeling efforts that capture the complex interactions between various entities in these interconnected ecosystems. To support such efforts, we develop a methodology to construct a realistic spatiotemporal gridded digital similar of livestock production and processing, human population, and wild birds for the contiguous United States. It involves multiscale and multisource data fusion and synthesis using statistical and optimization techniques, followed by verification and validation. This framework, called FIELD, consists of multiple layers and sublayers. It includes farm-level representations of four major livestock types\textemdashcattle, poultry, swine, and sheep\textemdashwith further categorization into commodities such as dairy cows, beef cows, chickens, and turkeys. Abundance data for relevant wild bird species are included. Gridded distributions of the human population, with demographic and occupational features, capture the agricultural workers and the general population. We apply FIELD to evaluate the evolving incidence likelihood risk to dairy and poultry operations and validate these results using historical incidences and phylogenetic analysis. The resulting commodity-specific spatiotemporal risk maps identify high-risk hotspots, enabling prioritization of surveillance efforts. While regional infection presence significantly enhances outbreak risk, the models reveal substantial differences in spread dynamics across poultry and dairy cattle. Furthermore, the colocation of these high-risk agricultural areas with dense human populations suggests heightened potential for zoonotic spillover and underscores the need for targeted surveillance in these coupled socioecological systems.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
One Health issues, such as the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, present unique challenges at the human–animal–environmental interface. Ongoing H5N1 outbreaks underscore the urgent need for comprehensive modeling efforts that capture the complex interactions between various entities in these interconnected ecosystems. To support such efforts, we develop a methodology to construct a realistic spatiotemporal gridded digital similar of livestock production and processing, human population, and wild birds for the contiguous United States. It involves multiscale and multisource data fusion and synthesis using statistical and optimization techniques, followed by verification and validation. This framework, called FIELD, consists of multiple layers and sublayers. It includes farm-level representations of four major livestock types—cattle, poultry, swine, and sheep—with further categorization into commodities such as dairy cows, beef cows, chickens, and turkeys. Abundance data for relevant wild bird species are included. Gridded distributions of the human population, with demographic and occupational features, capture the agricultural workers and the general population. We apply FIELD to evaluate the evolving incidence likelihood risk to dairy and poultry operations and validate these results using historical incidences and phylogenetic analysis. The resulting commodity-specific spatiotemporal risk maps identify high-risk hotspots, enabling prioritization of surveillance efforts. While regional infection presence significantly enhances outbreak risk, the models reveal substantial differences in spread dynamics across poultry and dairy cattle. Furthermore, the colocation of these high-risk agricultural areas with dense human populations suggests heightened potential for zoonotic spillover and underscores the need for targeted surveillance in these coupled socioecological systems.
9.
Dmitri A. Kalashnikov; John T. Abatzoglou; Alyssa M. Stansfield
Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Hourly Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States Journal Article
In: 2026.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{kalashnikov_contribution_2026,
title = {Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Hourly Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States},
author = {Dmitri A. Kalashnikov and John T. Abatzoglou and Alyssa M. Stansfield},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026GL122815},
doi = {10.1029/2026GL122815},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-06-01},
urldate = {2026-06-01},
abstract = {Tropical cyclones (TCs) contributed to extreme hourly rainfall at 76% of stations in the contiguous United States since 1980
Local Atlantic TCs contribute to hourly extremes in eastern CONUS, whi...},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Tropical cyclones (TCs) contributed to extreme hourly rainfall at 76% of stations in the contiguous United States since 1980
Local Atlantic TCs contribute to hourly extremes in eastern CONUS, whi...
Local Atlantic TCs contribute to hourly extremes in eastern CONUS, whi...
10.
Dmitri A. Kalashnikov; John T. Abatzoglou; Emily L. Williams; Cong Yin; Madhulika Gurazada; Mukesh Kumar; Ashwin P. Thomas; Precious E. Ebiendele
Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States Journal Article
In: Science Advances, vol. 12, no. 25, pp. eaea1277, 2026.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{kalashnikov_heatwaves_2026,
title = {Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States},
author = {Dmitri A. Kalashnikov and John T. Abatzoglou and Emily L. Williams and Cong Yin and Madhulika Gurazada and Mukesh Kumar and Ashwin P. Thomas and Precious E. Ebiendele},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aea1277},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aea1277},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-06-01},
urldate = {2026-06-01},
journal = {Science Advances},
volume = {12},
number = {25},
pages = {eaea1277},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
abstract = {While overall impacts of heatwaves have been extensively studied, the connection between heatwaves and wildfire activity remains relatively underexplored. We analyze links between heatwaves and both wildfire occurrence and growth across the western United States (WUS) and find that 42% of burned area during 2001\textendash2024 occurred during and immediately following heatwaves. Heatwaves facilitate significant increases in daily burned area through meteorological and fuel flammability conditions that promote new ignitions and exacerbate ongoing fire activity, with effects persisting post-heatwave in most regions. In addition, heatwaves co-occur with increased cloud-to-ground lightning that can potentially increase ignitions. Last, we observe a 2.5-fold increase in burned area in WUS forests since 2001, with textasciitilde64% of this increase coinciding with heatwaves, but without corresponding increases in nonforests. The growing influence of heatwaves in shaping burned area in WUS forests has important implications for fire management and public health and can improve predictions of wildfire risk.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
While overall impacts of heatwaves have been extensively studied, the connection between heatwaves and wildfire activity remains relatively underexplored. We analyze links between heatwaves and both wildfire occurrence and growth across the western United States (WUS) and find that 42% of burned area during 2001–2024 occurred during and immediately following heatwaves. Heatwaves facilitate significant increases in daily burned area through meteorological and fuel flammability conditions that promote new ignitions and exacerbate ongoing fire activity, with effects persisting post-heatwave in most regions. In addition, heatwaves co-occur with increased cloud-to-ground lightning that can potentially increase ignitions. Last, we observe a 2.5-fold increase in burned area in WUS forests since 2001, with textasciitilde64% of this increase coinciding with heatwaves, but without corresponding increases in nonforests. The growing influence of heatwaves in shaping burned area in WUS forests has important implications for fire management and public health and can improve predictions of wildfire risk.
